It’s a LONG, LONG road to November 2014 (and forever to November 2016) — and the world can turn in a couple news cycles. Still, the D’s can’t be happy with the numbers from the latest Quinnipiac survey released this week.
Certainly the botched ObamaCare rollout didn’t help the president’s terrible job approval numbers. And Hick had about as bad of a political year imaginable.
But there’s clearly a swing back to center/leaning right in Colorado underway — and voters are sounding awfully grumpy about both national and state politics. When their little-known potential GOP challengers are almost within the margin of error on the straight ballot question, Senator Udall and Gov. Hickenlooper should rightfully be running scared.
Political fortunes change in a hurry. For now, these are generic numbers — not based so much on the candidates as they are on simple party affiliation. And the D’s and Obama are on the ropes. Hickenlooper’s personal numbers may be starting to get baked in — which is a dangerous potentiality for him. But he’s blessed with a state Republican party that will want to swing too far right if given the chance, plus a corps of less-than-superstar opponents for his office. A slowly recovering economy — if it’s sustainable — can help him by next November too.
Can he regain his footing as an above-the-fray, un-politician? That might be tough. He’s been the governor for three years and made more than a few issue-based enemies along the way. But, for me, the biggest hurdle he’s got to overcome is the Dunlap death penalty fumble. Not so much for the decision to delay the execution but more for the wishy-washy political way he made it.
Udall has a completely different challenge. He’s a first-term senator who has not made a name or identity for himself — other than that he’s closely tied to the president. He has the good fortune of time, lots of national tv money and, like the guv, a weak field of challengers. But his fate may be more tightly tied to the president’s approval and right track/wrong track numbers than anything he/his campaign does.
Interestingly, independents are split evenly between re-elect and replace for both Udall and Hickenlooper. Of course, the most noticeable of the campaign screaming online, over the air and in the media will be in talking to and turning out the true believers on both sides. But how and how successfully the senate and gubernatorial races appeal to the growing purple middle of the Colorado electorate is where the winning candidates will focus.
- Poll Shows Hick With Tenuous Lead Over GOP Rivals (thecoloradoobserver.com)
- Polling numbers are in: Hick’s losing – unless he gets matched up against a Republican (coloradoindependent.com)
- Poll: Hickenlooper Keeps Lead over GOP Opponents (krextv.com)